Proxy War in Kashmir: Jehad or State-Sponsored Terrorism? This is a paper by Gurmeet Kanwal, Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. It was published in April 1999, just one month before the “Kargil crisis” erupted with the insertion of Pakistani troops into the Indian sector of the high Himalayas.
Proxy War in
Kashmir: Jehad or State-Sponsored Terrorism?
Gurmeet
Kanwal, Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi,
April 1999
For Islamabad, the
liberation of Kashmir is a sacred mission, the only task unfulfilled since
Muhammad Ali Jinnah's days. Moreover, a crisis in Kashmir constitutes an
excellent outlet for the frustration at home, an instrument for the
mobilisation of the masses, as well as gaining the support of the Islamist
parties and primarily their loyalists in the military and the ISI.1
— Yossef Bodansky
(Director of the US Congress Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional
Warfare)
Low Intensity
Conflict Continues Unabated
Since Pakistan-sponsored
militancy first erupted in the Kashmir Valley in 1989-90 and cries of azadi
(independence) rent the air, the pendulum of public opinion in Kashmir has
swung away from thoughts of jehad to more mundane 'bread and butter' issues.
While the security situation in Kashmir Valley has improved considerably,
Pakistan is now endeavouring to spread the cult of militancy and terrorism to
new areas south of the Pir Panjal range in the Jammu region, so as to create an
ethnic and sectarian divide and trigger a communal backlash. Pakistan's
increasing frustration and desperation can be gauged from the number of
incidents of terrorism that its mercenary agents have been perpetrating since
the situation in Kashmir Valley began to slip out of control in 1997-98. Pakistan's
aim is clearly to de-stabilise India by all possible means. A protracted 'proxy
war' and sustained political and diplomatic offensives, are part of a
well-crafted strategy to keep India engaged in internal squabbles and impose a
heavy burden on the Indian economy. Pakistan has achieved considerable success
in projecting the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) issue as an international
'flashpoint'.
Pakistan also aims to
ensure that the Indian Army and Central Para-Military Forces (CPMFs) remain
increasingly engaged in counter-insurgency/internal security operations in
J&K and the north-eastern states, so as to degrade India's superiority in
conventional combat through a process of strategic fatigue. While ensuring that
violence in the ongoing low intensity conflict is maintained at a low level so
that it does not lead to a conventional war (that is, it does not cross India's
perceived threshold of tolerance), Pakistan can be expected to continue to
develop its nuclear and missile capabilities to match Indian capabilities in
these fields. Pakistan hopes that such capabilities would further deter India
from resorting to conventional conflict to resolve the Kashmir issue.
The Indian
Government, on the other hand, has exhibited remarkable restraint in the face
of grave provocation. It is now engaged in taking stock of the emerging
developments to evolve a co-ordinated civil and military 'action plan' to
ensure that the initiative does not remain with Pakistan and that India is able
to safeguard its national security and territorial integrity, as well as,
eventually root out militancy from J&K and other parts of India. Though
military operations against the Pakistan-sponsored militants and terrorists
have been extremely successful, the nation has paid a heavy price in terms of
civilian and military casualties. The economic costs have also been staggering
and obviously cannot be sustained indefinitely. It is imperative that the
impact of the various complexities and nuances of the J&K issue is
carefully evaluated so that pragmatic decisions can be made to resolve it
expeditiously.
Genesis of Militancy
in Kashmir
Ever since Pakistani
raiders and razakars invaded J&K in October 1947 and the state acceded to
India, Pakistan has been unable to accept what it perceives as a wrongful oss.
The state remains a bone of contention between the two countries even after
over 50 years of independence. The Pakistan Government calls it the 'core'
issue and says that the eventual merger of J&K with Pakistan is the only
acceptable solution to the problem and that it is the 'unfinished agenda of
partition'.2 Having failed to annex J&K by force in the several wars
initiated by it against India over the last 50 years, and emboldened by its
acquisition of nuclear weapons in 1987,3 Pakistan hatched a new conspiracy for
the annexation of J&K by waging a covert 'proxy war' against India through
a strategy of 'bleeding India by a thousand cuts'.
Operation 'Topac',
under which Pakistan launched its proxy war against India, was brilliantly
conceived and skilfully executed. Pakistan's President, General Zia ul Haq's
concept was to exploit the religious sentiments of the Kashmiri people, whip up
passions on communal and sectarian lines, fan the flames of religious
fundamentalism and, in the process, gradually create conditions for waging a
jehad. Before launching its proxy war in Kashmir, Pakistan also initiated
measures to exploit the disgruntled elements among the youth of Punjab to fight
for the creation of an independent Sikh state of Khalistan. The intention was
to destabilise India by creating conditions of insecurity in two contiguous
front-line Indian states and to tie down the Indian security forces,
particularly the Indian Army, in internal security duties. It was expected that
prolonged employment in internal security duties would weaken the Indian Army
and degrade its conventional superiority over the Pakistan Army. All this was
to be achieved through a low-cost option, without getting directly involved.
The Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) Directorate of Pakistan was entrusted with the
responsibility of executing the plan. The ISI had gained immense experience in
organising guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan, with sabotage and terrorism as the
weapons of choice, while working together with the US Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA). The ISI had also surreptitiously siphoned off nearly 60 per cent
of the small arms, light weapons, ammunition and explosives supplied to it by
the CIA for onward despatch to the Afghan mujahideen.4 It has been reported
that arms and ammunition worth US $5 billion had been pumped into Afghanistan
by the US and its allies. In addition, the erstwhile Soviet Union had supplied
arms and ammunition worth US $5.7 billion.5 Large numbers of these weapons
became available to the ISI for equipping Kashmiri militants when the Soviet
forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. Profits from the clandestine sale of
freely available narcotics from Afghanistan, "donations from Muslim
zealots in other countries"6 and profits from large-scale smuggling
activities across the Indian border, provided adequate funds to finance an
uprising in J&K. Massive rigging of elections to the J&K Assembly in
March 19877 and the Kashmiri people's disillusionment with Mr. Farooq
Abdullah's allegedly corrupt and inefficient administration,8 led to
spontaneous protest and a call for azadi (independence). Thus the situation was
ripe for exploitation and the ISI, which was ready and waiting, stepped in to
fan the flames.
The strategic design
of Operation Topac was to launch a proxy war against India in a phased manner.9
The salient aspects of Pakistan's plan were as under :-10
* Initiate a
low-level insurgency to interdict communications networks and subvert the
police and financial institutions.
* Subsequently, exert
direct pressure along the Line of Control (LoC) by large-scale sabotage and
infiltrate mercenaries and Special Forces to attack vital targets in rear
areas.
* At an appropriate
stage, using religion as a motivating and binding factor, give a nudge to the
jehad to peak and, if necessary, be prepared to exercise the military option to
liberate J&K.
While J&K was to
remain the focus of all ISI activities, Operation Topac also envisaged the
provision of support and encouragement to insurgent and militant groups in the
north-eastern states of India and thespread of terrorism progressively to other
parts of India, in keeping with the strategy of bleeding the country through a
thousand cuts. It is axiomatic that for the Pakistanis, a continuing crisis in
Kashmir and tensions along the LoC with India provide an excellent diversion
from frustrations at home. These are time-tested methods for mobilising the
masses, for gaining the support of fundamentalist Islamic parties and the
mullahs within Pakistan and in other Islamic states. It also enables the
civilian rulers and the bureaucracy to keep the Pakistani Army gainfully
employed in directing and supporting the slickly packaged 'just cause' of the
Muslim brethren of Kashmir and, as a corollary, away from harbouring thoughts
of another military coup. Another major aim is to internationalise the Kashmir
issue, contrary to the spirit of the 1972 Shimla Agreement, by raising the
bogey of the denial of the Kashmiri people's right of self-determination. It is
conveniently ignored that Pakistan itself had impeded the process of the
holding of a plebiscite in J&K by not vacating its illegal occupation of
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), which is called Azad Kashmir in Pakistan. The
playing up and highlighting of trumped up human rights violations in the
international media is also part of a well-orchestrated campaign.
Pakistan's proxy war
campaign is carefully calibrated to ensure that India's perceived 'threshold of
tolerance' is not transgressed. Though Pakistan would prefer to avoid
escalation of the present low intensity conflict (LIC) situation to
conventional war, it has apparently vectored in the risks involved in pursuing
its proxy war strategy into its operational plans. Yossef Bodansky writes that,
"Pakistan knows that the active pursuit of the current Kashmir strategy
may lead to an escalation of the face off with India. Islamabad is ready to
deal with this eventuality while increasing its all out support for the
Kashmiris." In mid-February 1995, a Foreign Ministry spokesman warned that
'if India carries out another aggression and war breaks out between Pakistan
and India, it would not be a war of a thousand years or even a thousand hours,
but only a few minutes and India should not be oblivious to the potential
destruction.' Pakistani officials add that "Pakistan is really in a
position to strike a heavy blow against India through its nuclear
capability."11 Pakistan also believes that its nuclear weapons and
missiles provide the cheapest option for peace. Gen Mirza Aslam Beg writes:
"The nuclear and missile deterrence have helped maintain peace in the
sub-continent for over two decades."12
However, it is
self-evident that a foreign power can sow the seeds of insurgency only when
discontentment and dissent are already widespread among the people and the
situation is ripe for exploitation. Due to decades of poor governance13 and
neglect, compounded by rampant corruption, cynical nepotism, alienation from
the national mainstream and political mismanagement, the situation in J&K
was as bad as it could possibly have been in 1988-89.14 It is only belatedly
that true realisation has dawned regarding the various sins of omission and
commission with which the post-independence history of J&K is replete.
J&K Governor, Mr. Girish Chandra Saxena, recently told Prakash Nanda in an
interview that, "We are considering the situation on the political,
administrative and democratic fronts. We realise that maladministration,
corruption and unemployment have also been responsible for the growth of
militancy in the past."15
ISI's Current Modus
Operandi: State-sponsored Terrorism
In the early 1990s,
when local recruits were not hard to motivate, the ISI relied on Pakistan
trained militants (PTMs) for organising ambushes of security forces convoys and
patrols (using AK-47s and machine guns). PTMs were also employed for executing
hit-and-run raids on the Central Police Organisations (CPOs) bunkers and
pickets inside urban areas (for which hand grenades and rocket propelled
grenades were used). For low-risk tasks such as the planting of anti-personnel
land mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and to act as couriers of
arms, ammunition and messages, locally trained militants (LTMs) wre generally
employed. The ISI had declared 1994 as the year of 'barood' (explosives).
Though a fairly large measure of autonomy was given to the area and district
commanders of militant outfits such as Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), the Jammu and
Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) and Harkat ul Ansar (HUM—banned as a terrorist
organisation by the US State Department) to conduct operations, overall control
was retained by the ISI as it held the purse strings and was the single largest
source of supplies of arms and ammunition. Orders to the various outfits used
to be relayed over a clandestine radio station located in POK. However, the
Kalashnikov culture that swept Kashmir Valley soon extracted a predictable
toll. The power of the gun gradually corrupted the PTMs and they soon began to
indulge in extortion, loot, rape and murder for petty jealousies.
The criminal
activities of the militants soon alienated the Kashmiris. "Even political
leaders aligned with militant groups have acknowledged that the abuses
undermined the militants' support in Kashmir."16 At the same time, counter-insurgency
operations by the security forces also gained momentum and a large number of
militants were killed in action or apprehended. Kashmiri families soon became
wary of sending their sons for what they realised was a futile jehad. The
result was that, beginning around 1994-95, the ISI's recruitment base in
Kashmir Valley gradually dried up, though recruitment by force continued for
some more time. The ISI then placed its reliance for further operations in
Kashmir predominantly on foreign mercenaries. The ISI's USP (unique selling
point) was that Islam was in danger in India, in general, and in Kashmir, in
particular. Mercenaries from POK, Pakistan, Afghanistan, several Gulf and West
Asian countries including Saudi Arabia and Iraq and many African countries
including Egypt, Libya and Algeria, were hired, trained and inducted into the
Kashmir Valley. In addition, criminals undergoing long imprisonment sentences
in Pakistani jails were also enticed into participating in the so-called jehad.
They were told that their sentences would be reprieved if they successfully
completed a tenure of ISI ordained duty in J&K. Gradually, the presence of
foreign mercenaries among the militants went up from 15 per cent in 1994 to 40
per cent in end-1998.17
The modus operandi
was to give the mercenaries some rudimentary military training and knowledge
about using explosives, arm them with an AK-47 with four magazines of
ammunition and give them a few thousand Rupees in Indian currency. At an
opportune moment, they were infiltrated through the porous LoC with the support
of the Pakistani Army. The Army provided a safe passage through its own
defences, guidance by hired gujjars and bakkarwals (Kashmiri shepherds) and
covering fire from small arms, machine guns and even artillery, to draw away
the attention of Indian troops on the LoC. The command and control set up was
loose and flexible. The mercenaries were usually assigned to operate in
specified areas and co-ordinated their operations with each other and the
remnants of Kashmiri militants. The mercenaries soon found that the people in
Kashmir Valley enjoyed an unfettered right to practice their religion. Namaz
was performed by the devout five times a day and the mosques were functioning
without any kind of interference. In fact, the mullahs were quite used to and
rather fond of spewing venom and inciting the people to rise in revolt. Though
the local population tolerated them as 'guest militants' the mercenaries did
not get the promised support from the Kashmiri people, contrary to what they
had been briefed by their masters in Pakistan. Food and shelter were hard to
come by and the constant flight from the security forces was tiresome and most
inconvenient. Also, they found that the security forces, particularly the
Indian Army, were a tough force to reckon with and discovered that a militant's
life span in Kashmir was a maximum of four to six months before he was hounded
out and killed or apprehended. In 1998, as many as 320 foreign mercenaries were
killed.18
All this disillusioned
the mercenaries very quickly. The story of extortion, loot, rape and murder was
soon played out aain. Some of them even began to run their own harems. While
the people of Kashmir had initially actively participated in a struggle for
azadi (independence) and had even encouraged their sons to join the movement,
they were not willing to put up with the errant and domineering ways of the
foreign mercenaries with whom they did not identify in any manner whatsoever.
They soon began to give real-time intelligence— euphemistically called
'actionable' intelligence—about the whereabouts of the mercenaries to the
security forces. From then onwards, the days of the foreign mercenary in
Kashmir Valley were numbered. The tide finally turned around the summer months
of 1996 when the ISI found that it was no longer profitable or even cost
effective to persist with the induction of additional mercenaries in the Valley
sector. At this stage, the ISI, in conjunction with the Pakistani Army, appears
to have decided to shift the focus of its activities to the areas south of the
Pir Panjal range. It was also apparently decided at this time to rely more on
terror tactics to discredit the Indian administration, incite a communal and
sectarian divide among the people and, by simultaneously raising the ante in
Siachen glacier and along the LoC, project Kashmir as an international
'flashpoint'.
The ISI also enlarged
the sphere of its diabolical activities to other areas in India. South India
soon became a new front in the covert war against India, as evidenced by the
incidents of terrorism in 1997-98. In December 1997, there were three bomb
explosions in trains in Tamil Nadu. On February 14, 1998, simultaneous bomb
blasts in Coimbatore, at the venue of the Bhartiya Janata Party President's
election meeting, the bus stand, the railway station, near a hospital and in a
bazaar, mimicked the Mumbai bomb blasts of March 1993. The obvious objectives
were India's democratic and secular values, political stability and economic
growth. The sea route was followed to smuggle explosives to India's west coast
for the serial explosions in Mumbai. A new dimension was added to the ISI's
relentless effort to spread terrorism in India when, "On December 17,
1995....... an AN-26 aircraft flew into India from Karachi, refuelled at
Varanasi in broad daylight, airdropped about 400 AK-47s and thousands of rounds
of ammunition over Purulia in West Bengal, and the flew on to
Thailand.......The aircraft was intercepted five days later on December 22,
just as it was about to leave Indian airspace near Gujarat."20 Only two
months later, an Iranian and a Swiss national drove a truck full of weapons
through the Wagah border check post between Lahore and Amritsar to New Delhi
and were caught purely fortuitously. On February 11, 1998, a gang of
international gun runners was intercepted in the Andaman islands with a
consignment of 145 rifles and machine guns and 40,000 rounds of ammunition
meant for insurgent groups in the country's north-eastern states. "Thus
today we have a situation where land borders, sea coasts and now island
territories have become porous and vulnerable to infiltration of weapons and
terrorists alike (sic)."21
In J&K, the ISI
provides comprehensive support to five major militant groups. These include
Hizbul Mujahideen (approximate strength 1,000 militants), Harkat ul Ansar
(350), Lashkar-e-Toiba (300), Al Barq (200) and Al Jehad (150). In all, about
2,500 militants, mostly foreign mercenaries, belonging to these and other
smaller militant groups are operating in J&K at present. The ISI spends
about Rs. 60 to 80 crores every year for prosecuting Pakistan's proxy war
against India in J&K alone, that is Rs. 5 to 6.5 crores per month.22 It is
quite obvious that Pakistan's doddering economy can ill afford such
expenditure. As the ISI's links with the narcotics trade in Afghanistan and the
agency's active participation in the illegal arms trade flourishing in
Pakistan's North West Frontier Province are well known, it can only be assumed
that funding for its nefarious activities in India is being generated by the
ISI itself, with the active connivance of the Pakistan government and the Army.
Just before the
Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan, held at New Delhi in November
1998, Indiaome Minister, Mr. L K Advani called Pakistan a 'terrorist state'.
During the talks, the Indian team submitted the following four proposals to the
Pakistanis:-23
* Give up state
sponsorship of terrorism in India and dismantle the terrorist camps in Pakistan
for arming and indoctrinating militants.
* Close down more
than 30 training camps functioning in the so-called Azad Kashmir.
* Deny use of
Pakistani territory and facilities to fundamentalists and militant
organisations to fuel religious violence.
* Hand over to India
32 terrorist and underworld operators of Indian origin currently in Pakistan.
White Paper on ISI
Operations24
The ISI wishes to
float and sustain an 'overground conglomerate' to project itself as the 'third
party' to the dispute representing the 'wishes and aspirations' of the Kashmiri
people.
To sustain the
Kashmir movement at minimal cost, the ISI plans to cause disaffection and
alienation, play the Islam-in-danger card, highlight the non-performance of the
elected government and atrocities allegedly committed by the security forces.
Pakistan wants to
pursue the 'Qurban Ali Doctrine' or the inevitable balkanisation of India by
sending intensively trained and motivated Pakistani agents to carry out acts of
sabotage and subversion.
The objectives of
Pakistan's covert action plan against India are to:-
* Sustain the Kashmir
movement at minimal cost.
* Force a settlement
of the Kashmir problem on terms acceptable to Pakistan.
* Weaken India's
potential strength and national will by hitting at its perceived 'fault lines'.
* Prevent India from
emerging as a strategically dominant power in the region.
* Make Indian borders
porous and India's border states vulnerable to exploitation.
Pakistan wishes to
embarrass India by internationalising the Kashmir issue, projecting India as a
violator of UN resolutions and accusing it of human rights violations.
In pursuance of its
objectives, the ISI is engaged in spreading the tentacles of terrorism not only
in J&K but also in Punjab, Assam and Nagaland by carrying out subversive
propaganda on fundamentalist and communal lines. The ISI has established
operational links with drug syndicates and fundamentalist Islamic groups in
Pakistan, Afghanistan and India.
In response to
demands made by members of the Parliamentary Consultative Committee attached
with the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Government of India has proposed to
bring out a White Paper on ISI activities in the budget session of Parliament.
Details of some of the issues which are likely to be included in the proposed White
Paper have appeared in some sections of the Indian press.25
The growing ISI
presence along the Indo-Nepal border is another cause for concern. India has
taken up the issue of ISI's anti-India activities, which include the
infiltration of militants and agents and the smuggling of arms, explosives and
narcotics through Nepal into India, with the Nepalese Government at the highest
level.26 The increasing influx of Bangladesh nationals in the strategically
sensitive Siliguri Corridor in north Bengal has changed the demographic pattern
in the area. The population of Muslims has increased from 15 per cent in 1971
to 70 per cent at present. The ISI is using the Siliguri Corridor for smuggling
arms and narcotics from Bangladesh into the north-eastern states of India.
Along the Rajasthan border also, the ISI is actively involved in setting up
madrassas (Islamic schools) inside Indian territory and in smuggling arms,
explosives and narcotics.28 These developments are pointers to the larger
Pakistani gameplan to further extend the areas in India in which internal
security is not fully under the control of the civil government and,
consequently, to dissipate efforts to fight the menace of militancy and
terrorism.
Present State of
Militancy in J&K
1999 is the tenth year
of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Despite vociferous denials to the
contrary, Pakistan continues to finance, train, equip and support Kashmiri
militants and actively abet their ttempts at infiltration across the Line of
Control (LoC). As the initial recruitment base in the Kashmir Valley has very
nearly completely dried up, Pakistan is increasingly resorting to sponsoring
Islamic mercenaries to let loose a reign of terror in J&K. A suo motto
statement made by the Defence Minister in the Lok Sabha on August 5, 1998,
explained Pakistan's frustrations and its desperation to raise the ante in
Kashmir. Extracts from the statement are reproduced below.29
"Pakistan has
always resorted to firing along the LoC to facilitate infiltration by Pakistani
and foreign militants who are organised, trained equipped, financed, armed and
finally infiltrated with active covering fire and support from Pakistani Army
deployed along the LoC. In recent months, especially since May 1998, our
security forces have been able to intercept and reduce the level of
infiltration, thereby frustrating Pakistan's designs. As if to give vent to its
frustration, Pakistan has started targeting not only our Army posts but also
civilian inhabited areas, with Batalik, Kargil, Kanzalwan, Tangdhar, Karen and
Uri becoming the main targets.
"These actions
by Pakistan are in consonance with its calculated design to obstruct and stall
peaceful bilateral dialogue and to create a sense of alarm by orchestrating
incidents on the border which will project Jammu and Kashmir as a 'flashpoint'.
Pakistan's desperation is becoming acute in view of the fast declining Kashmiri
support in the Valley to militancy, control of which has passed into the hands
of Pakistani militant organisations, patronised by Pakistani political figures;
and foreign mercenaries directed by Pakistan's Inter Services
Intelligence."
With the Indian
security forces in almost complete control of the security situation in the
Kashmir Valley, the centre of gravity of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence
(ISI)-controlled and directed mercenary activities is gradually shifting to new
areas south of the Pir Panjal Range which separates the Jammu region from the
Kashmir Valley. These include Doda (Kishtwar and Bhadarwah), Punch and Rajouri.
Sporadic acts of wanton terrorism were also perpetrated in and around Jammu
City and Udhampur during 1997-98. Serious attempts are also being made to widen
the arc of militancy to areas in the states bordering J&K such as in the
Dalhousie-Chamba area of Himachal Pradesh.
As most areas south
of the Pir Panjal Range in Jammu region are predominantly Hindu majority areas,
unlike the Kashmir Valley, which is a Muslim majority area, the aim is clearly
to create a communal and sectarian divide. Acts of terrorism targeted primarily
against Hindus are designed to engender mass migrations by whipping up a fear
psychosis on the pattern of the exodus of Hindus from the Kashmir Valley in
1990-93, with a view to gradually changing the demographic pattern in the Jammu
region and adjacent areas. Tables 1 and 2 show the brutal and savage acts of
terrorism perpetrated in the Kashmir Valley and the areas south of the Pir
Panjal Range in 1996-98, masterminded by the ISI and executed with ruthless
precision by foreign mercenaries.30
|
Date |
Place |
District |
Killed |
Wounded |
|
May
6, 1996 |
Lasjan
|
Srinagar
|
8 |
1 |
|
July
7, 1996 |
Bakihakar |
Kupwara
|
11 |
5 |
|
August
21, 1996 |
Ranbelpur |
Anantnag
|
9 |
1 |
|
October
5, 1996 |
Sunderkut |
Baramula |
7 |
- |
|
January
2, 1997 |
Musmilpur
|
Baramula
|
7 |
- |
|
March
27, 1997 |
Sangrampur
|
Badgam
|
7 |
1 |
|
January
26, 1998 |
Wandhama
|
Srinagar
|
23 |
- |
Table 2. Massacres in Areas South of Pir Panjal Range
|
Date |
Place |
District |
Killed |
Wounded |
|
January
5, 1996 |
Barshala |
Doda |
5 |
- |
|
April
18, 1996 |
Parankot |
Rajouri |
26
|
- |
|
July
25, 1996 |
Hinjan Gali |
Doda
|
13 |
- |
|
May
6, 1998 |
Surankot
|
Punch |
4 |
2 |
|
June
10, 1998 |
Phagla
|
Punch
|
4
|
1 |
|
June
19, 1998 |
Chapnari |
Doda |
25
|
7 |
|
July
27, 1998 |
Horna
|
Doda
|
16
|
5 |
|
August
3, 1998 |
Kalaban
|
Chamba |
36 |
- |
|
(Himachal
Pradesh) |
|
|||
|
August
3, 1998 |
Chandi
|
Udhampur |
5 |
- |
|
August
8, 1998 |
Sailan
|
Punch |
9 |
- |
In addition to the massacres enumerated in the accompanying tables, the killing of 20 Hindus on February 20, 1999, in three separate incidents, two in Rajouri district and one in Udhampur district, coincided with Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's historic bus ride to Lahore in Pakistan to achievea breakthrough in Indo-Pakistan relations.31
In Doda, "the
entire operational command has been handed over to foreign mercenaries
belonging to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan and Turkey, sidelining Kashmiri
militants."32 Doda district comprises rugged mountainous terrain which
affords ample opportunity to the militants to operate from well-concealed
hideouts. The countryside is ideal for the mercenaries to establish their
headquarters and radio communications centres and to stockpile arms, ammunition
and explosives. Due to the lack of adequate surface communications, it is
difficult for the security forces to respond in a timely manner to prevent
incidents of terrorism, or to chase and eliminate militants after they strike.
It is even more difficult to establish a viable intelligence network. In
particular, the gaining of 'actionable' intelligence for launching surgical
strikes against the militants is extremely problematic. As such, the ISI has
succeeded in achieving major successes in killing members of the minority
community in order to create a communal divide and force migrations from the
area. It has also achieved success in blowing up bridges and culverts to
further slow down the security forces and in targeting schools, government
buildings and property. Even places of worship have not been spared.
In a perceptive piece
after the Prankot massacre in April 1998, Ved Marwah, former Police
Commissioner of Delhi and former adviser to the Governor of J&K, Jagmohan,
expressed the following views:-33
"The shift to
Jammu is deliberate and is likely to continue. The number of foreign
mercenaries is likely to increase in the coming months in the region, with more
trained and experienced Afghan mujahideen being available for infiltration into
the state. Harkat-ul-Ansar and Lashkar-e-Toiba have been operating there since
1993 and many more such groups have entered the Jammu region since then......
What is called for is concrete action—an immediate strengthening of the
security arrangements in the region with the active support of the state police
and the civil administration."
Since the setting up
of the Unified Command in J&K in December 1996 (after elections to the
State Assembly in September 1996), with the Chief Minister of the State as the
Chairman and the General Officers Commanding 15 and 16 Corps as Security
Advisers, there has been much greater co-ordination between the State Government,
the Army and the CPOs in the fight against militancy. The re-vamped Jammu and
Kashmir Police (JKP) and the better trained, equipped and motivated Jammu and
Kashmir Armed Police (JKAP)34 have begun to operate in close co-ordination with
the central security forces and greater synergy has been achieved in
counter-insurgency operations. The intelligence network has also been
strengthened. The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) has become more effective
in co-ordinating intelligence acquisition, collation, analysis, synthesis and
dissemination.
The Army has enhanced
its vigil over the LoC to further reduce infiltration through a three-tier,
static-cum-mobile deployment plan combined with vigorous patrolling in the rear
areas, particularly during the hours of darkness and poor visibility. Equipment
and technology deficiencies of the past are now being redressed to improve and
further enhance the quality of surveillance. Sophisticated electro-optronic
observation and surveillance equipment, including hand-held battlefield
surveillance radars (BFSRs), is gradually being inducted to further enhance the
quality of surveillance over the LoC. The long-standing requirement of passive
night vision devices (PNVDs—based on the principle of thermal imaging), for the
troops deployed on the LoC, is also being addressed. Unattended ground sensors
(UGS), which can detect the movement of human beings through the generation of
acoustic, magnetic or electrical signatures, are also likely to be acquired and
emplaced in difficult terrain through which infiltration can take place.
However, no amount of
hi-tech gadgetry such as BFSRs, PNVDs and UGS, can completely eliminate
infiltration. The rugged mountainous terrain, covered by dense forests in the
Punch and Rajouri areas, comprises innumerabe deep ravines, nullahs and
re-entrants and is tailor-made for infiltration as the initiative for deciding
on a route for infiltration, from among the numerous choices available in a
given area, lies with the militants. Even if the number of infantry battalions
deployed on the LoC could be doubled, it would not be possible to stop
infiltration altogether. Hence, the present emphasis is on making the villagers
capable of fending for themselves through the establishment of village defence
committees (VDCs). The members of the VDCs are being provided elementary
training, light weapons and limited communications equipment. In Doda district
alone, 800 VDCs have been established.36
Simultaneously, the
number of police posts is being increased to enhance the presence of the civil
administration in the affected areas in Punch, Rajouri, Udhampur and Doda
districts. The aim is to instil confidence among the people, deter terrorist
strikes by denying the militants the capability of unfettered movement in the
area, gain intelligence, identify harbourers and sympathisers who provide
shelter to the militants, exercise command and control over the VDCs and for
quick reaction against the terrorists when they mange to launch strikes. This
JKP scheme is called 'Police Security Grid' and involves the setting up of 90
border posts (on the likely routes of infiltration behind Army posts in Punch
and Rajouri districts), 385 defence posts (inside selected villages) and 118
operational posts (to launch active counter-insurgency operations against the
militants) in the four districts.37 When finally implemented, these measures
will help to prevent forced migrations of members of the minority community and
enable the JKP and the people of the affected areas to play a more effective
part in eliminating militancy in J&K. In Punjab, the tide had turned only
when the local people stood up to the militants and the Punjab Police, under
the able guidance of the State's outstanding Director General, Mr. K P S Gill,
took the lead in rooting out the scourge of militancy and terrorism from the
State with the active support of the people.
India's Military
Response: Paying a High Price
If the situation in
Kashmir Valley has been brought under control despite the viciousness and
ruthlessness of the ISI-sponsored campaign to wrest Kashmir from India, the
credit must go to the Indian Army and the other central security forces such as
the BSF and the CRPF. The Army's relentless effort in conducting
counter-insurgency operations under the most trying circumstances, while
resolutely adhering to the application of the principle of 'minimum force', is
indeed commendable and possibly unparalleled. "In contrast to similar
situations elsewhere in the world, where tanks, aircraft, artillery and mortars
have been freely used with attendant non-combatant casualties, the Indian Army
has conducted no more than a police operation in Kashmir. In keeping with its
training and style, it has carried this out in a methodical fashion, ferreting
out and arresting individuals rather than punishing a community, seeking combat
with the militants, rather than waiting to be attacked in places where
civilians could be hit."38
Tables 3 and 4 show
the enormity of the task involved in bringing about normalcy in J&K. The large
number of militants who have been killed, apprehended or have surrendered and,
the huge quantity of weapons, ammunition and explosives recovered, point both
to the scale and viciousness of the campaign launched by Pakistan by proxy
against India and the magnitude of the immense effort expended in successfully
defeating that campaign.
|
Year |
Killed |
Apprehended |
Surrendered |
|
1990 |
466 |
3,267 |
37 |
|
1991 |
632 |
2,973 |
138 |
|
1992 |
637 |
4,089 |
226 |
|
1993 |
1,042 |
3,405 |
73 |
|
1994 |
1,228 |
3,197 |
128 |
|
1995 |
1,102 |
3,541 |
657 |
|
1996 |
902 |
1,826 |
224 |
|
1997 |
888 |
1,257 |
235 |
|
1998 |
825 |
475 |
118 |
|
Total |
7,742* |
24,030 |
1,836 |
Including foreign mercenaries :- * 888
|
Serial
Type of Weapon/Equipment |
Quantity |
|
1.
Assault Rifle AK-47/56 |
13,675 |
|
2.
Light/Universal Machine Gun |
779 |
|
3.
Sniper Rifles |
498 |
|
4.
Sten Guns |
27 |
|
5.
Pistols |
4,891 |
|
6.
Single/ouble Barrel Guns |
797 |
|
7.
Anti-personnel Mines |
5,422 |
|
8.
Anti-tank Mines |
354 |
|
9.
Hand Grenades |
35,557 |
|
10.
Explosives (kgs) |
11,865 |
|
11.
Ammunition (rounds) |
2,693,520 |
Weapons such as RPGs (rocket propelled grenade launchers), infantry mortars and anti-aircraft missiles, have been recovered in smaller numbers. In addition, 1,403 radio sets, most of them extremely sophisticated, have also been recovered. The above mentioned figures are in respect of militants neutralised and recoveries made during Army operations. The success achieved by the CPOs and JKP/JKAP would make the tally much higher.
In reply to Dr.
Jayanta Rongpi's Unstarred Question No. 205, answered in the Lok Sabha (Lower
House of the Indian Parliament) on May 28, 1998, the Defence Minister, Mr.
George Fernandes stated the following:-40
"At present,
72,000 defence personnel are directly deployed in counter-insurgency/internal
security in J&K, while about 47,000 are deployed in north-eastern states.
In addition, there are also personnel of supervisory and other formations who
are involved in supervisory roles whose number is not included in the above
figures.
"Prolonged
employment of Army for such duties, besides adversely affecting the Army's
preparation for its main task also imposes an extra burden on the defence
budget which, in turn, affects Army's modernisation programmes. In addition,
casualties suffered by the Army in peacetime affect the morale of the Army
personnel.
"The maintenance
of law and order is basically the responsibility of the State Governments and
the defence forces are deployed for counter-insurgency/internal security duties
only against a specific requisition by the State administration and/or when
they are statutorily required to render such duties under the provisions of the
relevant laws such as Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958, etc.
"The consistent
policy of the Government in this regard has been that the defence forces should
be deployed for internal security duties very sparingly and only if the State
Government is not in a position to handle the situation and the deployment of
defence forces becomes absolutely necessary. The Rashtriya Rifles was
sanctioned by the Government to relieve the Army, to the extent possible, form
counter-insurgency duties. This has, however, helped only to a limited extent
in view of the increased commitment of the Army in counter-insurgency operations."
It emerges from the
Defence Minister's statement that a total of 119,000 Army personnel were
deployed for counter-insurgency and internal security duties in J&K and the
north-eastern states of India in May 1998. Since the number of supervisory and
supporting personnel is over and above this figure, it could be concluded that
approximately 132 infantry battalions were committed for such duties. (The
approximate strength of an infantry battalion may be taken as 900 personnel.)
Of these units, 36 battalions are of the Rashtriya Rifles.41 Hence, about 96
infantry battalions were employed for such duties. As the situation has not
changed substantially since 1993-94 (except that while militancy has come
militarily under control in the Kashmir Valley, the security situation in the
areas south of the Pir Panjal range has deteriorated), it could be assumed that
about 90 to 95 battalions are being employed continuously for
counter-insurgency/internal security duties.
In addition, for the
last five years, five to eight infantry battalions of the Territorial Army42
and about 25 battalions of the Assam Rifles, a para-military force funded by
the Ministry of Home Affairs but officered by and under the operational control
of the Army, have also been employed for active operations within the country.
Hence, overall 162 to 165 regular Army and Army-led para-military battalions
are actively engaged in counter-insurgency/internal security operations and
duties. To this list, details of the units of Central Police Organisations
(CPOs) which are being employed for similar tasks, need to be added to get an
overview of the enormity of the effort involved in combating militancy which is
mainly Pakistan-sponsored, aided and abetted. These details are given in Table
5.
Table 5. Units of CPO Forces Employed for
Counter-insurgency/Internal Security Duties
|
Type
of Force |
J&K
|
North-eastern
States |
|
Border
Security Force (BSF) |
70
|
7 |
|
Central
Reserve Police Force (CRPF) |
37 |
60 |
|
Indo-Tibetan
Border Police (ITBP) |
4
|
— |
|
Jammu
and Kashmir Armed Police (JKAP) |
11 |
— |
As the level of violence has been consistently high throughout the last ten years of militancy in J&K, the casualty rates were bound to be high. Table 6 shows the casualties suffered by Army personnel and innocent civilian citizens in J&K during 1990-98.
|
Army |
Civilians |
|||||
|
Year |
Killed |
Wounded |
Killed |
Wounded |
|
||
|
1990 |
18 |
69 |
656 |
624 |
|
||
|
1991 |
44 |
161 |
409 |
725 |
|
||
|
1992 |
50 |
201 |
330 |
629 |
|
||
|
1993 |
88 |
405 |
327 |
685 |
|
||
|
1994 |
139 |
426 |
137 |
702 |
|
||
|
1995 |
186 |
517 |
148 |
530 |
|
||
|
1996 |
150 |
359 |
456 |
794 |
|
||
|
1997 |
153 |
363 |
312 |
648 |
|
||
|
1998 |
133 |
377 |
471 |
669 |
|
||
|
Total |
961 |
2,878 |
3,237 |
6,019 |
|
||
Till end-June 1998, the Army and CPOs together had lost 1442 men,44 compared with 1103 soldiers killed during the entire 1947-48 conflict with Pakistan in J&K. The nation is indeed paying a high price in combating Pakistan's proxy war in J&K to maintain its territorial integrity.
As per the details
reported to be contained in the White Paper proposed to be released by the
Government in the budget session of Parliament, Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in
India has claimed the lives of 29,151 civilians and 5,101 security forces
personnel. 2,78,601 persons have been rendered homeless. The loss to public and
private property is estimated at Rs. 2,000 crores. The cost of compensation
paid to victims, for border fencing and the amount expended on the raising of
local anti-terrorist force, works out to Rs. 18,500 crores. The expenditure on
the Army and para-military forces is approximately Rs. 46,000 crores.
Besides the casualties
being suffered almost on a daily basis and their adverse impact on morale, the
Army's prolonged involvement in counter-insurgency operations has several other
major disadvantages. The financial costs of sustaining a successful
counter-insurgency campaign are staggering. It has been estimated that the Army
spends approximately Rs. 2,500 crores (US $600 million) out of its annual
budget on counter-insurgency operations.45 This is about 13 per cent of the
Army's 1997-98 budget of Rs. 19,000 crores approximately (Revised Estimates).
The outcome is that the Army spends almost 57 per cent of its budget on pay and
allowances, about 40 percent on the maintenance of equipment and the
replenishment of ammunition and other essential stores being consumed for
counter-insurgency operations, and is left with only three per cent for
modernisation, including capital acquisitions. Even the expenditure on the
Rashtriya Rifles, amounting to approximately Rs 500 crores annually, is
incurred from the Army's budget. It is obvious that the Army can ill afford an
expenditure of 13 per cent on counter-insurgency operations from its budget
without its operational efficiency for its primary task being significantly
impaired. As the Defence Minister informed Parliament (see text of the
Minister's statement above), the Army's modernisation programme has been
adversely affected by its prolonged and continued involvement in
counter-insurgency duties. This situation needs to be redressed as early as
possible.
As most of the
additional battalions required for counter-insurgency operations have been
inducted from peace stations, the peace time tenures of infantry battalions
have consequently had to be reduced correspondingly. This affects the Army's
preparation for conventional war since intensive training at individual,
section, platoon, company, battalion, brigade and divisional levels requires a
systematic and methodical approach and stability of tenure is an important
pre-requisite. Also, the requirement of serving tenures for counter-insurgency/internal
security is over and above the existing requirement of serving in field/high
altitude areas along the LoC and the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL, on
Siachen Glacier) with Pakistan and the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.
This results in peace station tenures not only being shorter but also more
spaced out. Once again, training and preparedness for conventional war are
bound to be affected.
The wear and tear
caused to first line weapons (small arms and light crew-served weapons),
equipment, vehicles, extreme cold clothing (ECC) and camp items such as tentage
due to excessive usage in counter-insurgency/internal security operations,
results in a reduction in their life cycles. As it is not always possible to
procure replacements due to the inadequacy of funds, replacements have to be
provided from the available war reserves which results in their depletion. Some
units are inducted for operations temporarily during the summer months only or
to fill emergent operational voids till new units can be brought in. The
weapons and equipment that temporarily inducted units leave behind in
cantonments, deteriorates due to inadequate maintenance.
Regarding the effect
on the morale of the Army, given the fact that approximately 119,000 personnel
are involved in exacting and sometimes exasperating and psychologically
unsettling counter-insurgency/internal security duties, it can be stated that
the Army has borne the rigours of prolonged employment in these operations
stoically and resolutely. The nature of LIC is such that it exacts a heavy
mental toll due to the absence of a clearly defined uni-directional threat and
the assumed omnipresence of armed militants who may suddenly open fire form the
least expected direction. The abundance of anti-personnel mines and remotely
controlled IEDs and, the lurking fear of a hand grenade being hurled without
warning from around a corner on a passing vehicle, also add to the pressures on
a soldier's mind. Odd hours of duty and long marches through inhospitable
terrain, while braving the vagaries of the weather (which in J&K comprises
rain, snow, sleet, fog and blistering winds capable of chilling even a
well-clad soldier to the bone marrow), exact a heavy physical toll as well. By
all accounts, personnel of the CPOs have also withstood the challenges of
internal security operations commendably well. However, the long-term
implications of prolonged employment are not yet clear. Maj Gen Arjun Ray
writes : "Troops who operate for protracted periods under stressful
conditions are bound to suffer from psychological problems as well as
disorders." Recently there have been reports that a number of CRPF
personnel deployed in J&K have been afflicted by mental disease. These need
to be taken note of as the reported incidents may be advance indicators of a
larger malaise.48
During an interview
with the Times of India on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Army Day,
General V P Malik, PVSM, AVSM, ADC, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) stated
that, "With increasing involvement in counter-insurgency and internal
security operations, the operational preparedness was getting
diluted.......Prolonged and large-scale deployment is neither good for the Army
nor the country."49 The COAS was only reiterating what he and his predecessors
have said on a number of occasions in the past. In the ultimate analysis, it is
clear that the prolonged and continued employment of a large number of Army
units in counter-insurgency/internal security operations, is likely to result
in the reduction of the Army's combat potential and, consequently, in the
degradation of India's conventional deterrence, particularly against Pakistan.
The Rashtriya Rifles
force was raised to act as the Army's counter-insurgency strike force so that
regular infantry battalions would remain available to train and prepare for
their primary task even during periods when the Army's employment for counter
insurgency/internal security operations is unavoidable. However, under the
present circumstances, 36 Rashtriya Rifles battalions have proved to be grossly
inadequate for the purpose as the requirement appears to have stabilised at
approximately 130 to 135 battalions, including the Rashtriya Rifles battalions.
It is imperative that the employment of regular infantry battalions of the Army
for counter-insurgency operations be reduced to not more than 30 to 40 at a
time so as to overcome the drawbacks of prolonged employment, if it cannot be
stopped altogether.
Various options could
be considered to find a solution to this problem. Firstly, the number of
Rashtriya Rifles attalions could be increased to about 60 and the force given
permanency as the counter-insurgency component of the Army, to be funded
preferably by the Ministry of Home Affairs to avoid a heavy strain on the
Army's budget or through an additionality to be given to the Army budget.
Simultaneously, the strength of Assam Rifles could be increased to about 60
battalions (from the present 31). Secondly, a new national level
counter-insurgency strike force could be raised with Army leadership and ethos,
based on the existing Rashtriya Rifles as a nucleus. Such a force, to be
financed by the Ministry of Home Affairs, could comprise about 100 battalions,
to be raised gradually in a phased manner over the 9th, the 10th and the 11th
plans. Thirdly, the CRPF could be designated as the national counter-insurgency
strike force. (The BSF must go back to its border guarding role which is not
being performed with optimal efficiency at present as the force is heavily
committed in counter-insurgency/internal security operations. Effective border
management is a mandatory pre-requisite if the induction of weapons, ammunition
and explosives, as well as foreign mercenaries and foreign trained Indian
militants is to be checked and reduced.) The CRPF will need to be re-vamped for
this new role and its leadership and training standards will need to be
immensely enhanced. The lateral induction of volunteer Army officers with
experience of counter-insurgency operations and trained Army instructors in the
rank and file will go a long way in re-vamping the CRPF. Each of the options
discussed above has several merits as well as many disadvantages. These need to
be analysed in detail by a specially constituted joint Army and CPOs study group
whose findings should be evaluated by the National Security Advisory Board
(NSAB) of the National Security Council (NSC). Recommendations made by the NSAB
should be examined by the NSC and approved for early implementation.
A Solution Remains
Elusive
Clearly, India's
patience has been stretched almost to the limit and the strain is now showing.
Demands for a more pro-active Kashmir policy are becoming vociferous. "The
country has exercised restraint against Pakistan's proxy war and shown enough
tolerance. We must make the costs unbearable for Pakistan. Why is the nation
shying away from exercising the military option? Is there not provocation
enough?50 In a sharply critical article in September 1998, Mr. K Subrahmanyam
wrote: "It would appear that the Government of India has no policy about a
possible solution to the Kashmir issue but hopes that so long as the issue is
kept out of international attention and the insurgency and terrorism are
contained through attrition, the problem will go away."51
Mr. Farooq Abdullah,
the Chief Minister of J&K, a long-standing advocate for recognising the LoC
as the international border between India and Pakistan, is now of the view that
the Kashmir issue should be frozen for 25 years and that the two countries
should build bridges on other aspects like trade, tourism and cultural
exchanges.52 Mr. K.P.S Gill, former Director General of Punjab Police, is
critical of the country's reliance on 'the niceties of diplomacy' to resolve
the Kashmir problem and says that, "No nation in the world would have
displayed the restraint and the patience that we have in the face of the scale
and intensity of violence that has been unleashed upon us. It is time, now, to
cry halt."53 However, he acknowledges that "the overwhelming reality
is that the people of the sub-continent do not want conflict."
It is axiomatic that
there can be no military solution to an insurgency. The security forces can
only restore functional normalcy so that the law and order situation is under
control and the writ of the civil administration runs in the state. The level
of violence can be curtailed to a large extent and the number of incidents can
be considerably reduced by co-ordinated operations. However, the security
forces cannot eliminate the insurgency. To do that, the root causes of the
insurgency have to be identified and tackled and the people's perceived
grievances redressed. That is a task which only the civil administration and
elected political leaderscan undertake. The security forces can assist by carrying
out 'civic action' on behalf of the civil administration, 'show the flag' by
virtue of their presence in the area, particularly the villages in the
interior, and provide security cover to civil officials to enable them to
perform their duties without fear. Exemplary state and national level
leadership and a resolute and unwavering political will are necessary to root
out insurgency.
A lasting solution to
the Kashmir issue can only be found if both the external and the internal
dimensions of the problem are successfully addressed, as both are inextricably
interlinked. Unless Pakistan 'turns off the tap' of infiltration, no amount of
effort, both military and civilian, will succeed in eliminating militancy from
J&K. By now it should be clear to Pakistan that its proxy war will not
succeed under any circumstances and that it would be in its own interest to
renounce this path and seek mutually beneficial co-operation with India.
However, George Santayana's classic definition of a fanatic is that he is a person
who re-doubles his effort on losing sight of his goal. The fanatics in the
Pakistani Army and the ISI can only be expected to re-double their efforts.
It is difficult to
believe that the Pakistani Government does not understand that its sponsorship
of insurgencies and its support to virulently fundamentalist organisations such
as the Taliban militia, will eventually boomerang on Pakistan itself. It does
not require great prescience to predict that the Taliban backlash is eventually
bound to create unmanageable problems for Pakistan. Perhaps, having created a
Frankenstein monster, the Pakistanis now find it difficult to regain control;
or, they have deluded themselves into believing that they can get away with it
lightly. Either way, Pakistan is apparently set on a course of self
destruction.
In case the present
proxy war leads to conventional or, even the unthinkable, nuclear war, it
should be obvious to the Pakistanis that they will suffer much more than India.
During an address to the National Defence College, New Delhi, General V P
Malik, the COAS, warned that, "Pakistan's proxy war is dangerous not only
for India but for the entire region. If militancy grows too big, both the
initiator and the affected nation are tempted to use conventional means of war."54
Perhaps, the civilian rulers of Pakistan have already gone too far with the
latitude given to the ISI and the Pakistani Army to wage a proxy war against
India and are now unable to control the Frankenstein monster. The February 1999
massacre in Rajouri and Udhampur districts, masterminded by the ISI to coincide
with Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's bus ride to Lahore, could not possibly
have been timed to send a message to the Indian Government as such incidents
often have been in the past. This time, clearly, the message was from the
Pakistan Army-ISI-Jamaat e Islami combine to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif, and its essence was: "Shake hands, play cricket and hockey, open
up trade and encourage people-to-people contacts if you wish; however, lay off
Kashmir—that is our agenda and it is non-negotiable."
Nevertheless, India
should continue to strive to achieve normalcy in its relations with Pakistan
and must keep all channels of communications open. Mr. K Subrahmanyam
recommends that: "India should put forward a whole series of confidence
building measures (CBMs) to reduce tension and restore peace in Jammu and
Kashmir to enable meaningful negotiations between India and Pakistan. This
should include an open skies plan along the border, international observers to
check on Pakistani camps of terrorist organisations and agreed mining and
fencing of borders." However, as long as Pakistan remains intransigent and
believes that holding bilateral talks with India is futile, as advocated by the
former Foreign Minister, Mr. Gohar Ayub Khan, prior to the Colombo summit
meeting between the two Prime Ministers in July 1998,56 India should remain
aware that not much is likely to be achieved by India's continued pursuance of
the diplomatic option. Pakistan's efforts to secure third party mediation are
irreconcilable with India's approach hat the problems between the two countries
be resolved bilaterally in the spirit of the Shimla agreement.
India must project
the Kashmir issue as one of international fundamentalist Islamic terrorism with
widespread adverse ramifications, including for the western nations. Osama Bin
Laden's terrorist training bases in Afghanistan which were hit by US cruise
missiles in August 1998, were also training terrorists for operations in J&K.
Mr. Naresh Chandra, India's Ambassador to the US, recently highlighted the
convergence of Indian and US interests on terrorism : "Both India and the
United States have been victims of terrorism perpetrated by individuals trained
and equipped in the same schools of crime near India's borders."57 It
would be in India's interest to further highlight through diplomatic channels
and by launching a concerted public information/awareness campaign that
Pakistan is the 'mother nation' of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism. The US
State Department has so far been reluctant to list Pakistan as a sponsor of
international terrorism "because of warnings by Pakistani Prime Ministers
that such action would unravel the country's fledgling democracy and drive it
into the hands of the virulently anti-American extremists." The US needs
to be convinced that turning a blind eye to Pakistan's sponsorship of terrorism
neither augurs well for peace and stability in the Southern Asian region, nor
is it in the US' own long-term interest.
Regarding the
internal dimension of the Kashmir problem, there is a lot more that can still
be done. The first and foremost is the issue of the general consensus within
the country to initiate talks with the militants. Mr. Prem Shankar Jha, a noted
columnist, is of the opinion that the Muslims in Kashmir are not prepared to go
back to the way things were before 1990. He writes: "Needless to say,
India cannot offer independence to J&K, but if the Government wants a
peaceful settlement in Kashmir, it must drop its insistence that it will hold
talks with the militants only under the Constitution. This position......... is
a non-starter.........The Government should have the courage to drop its
insistence and agree to hold talks with the militants without pre-conditions."59
Mr. Muchkund Dubey, a former Foreign Secretary, recommends "opening a
broad-based dialogue embracing all sections of society and evolving an
acceptable package containing, among others, a cast iron guarantee that the
experience of the recent past will never be repeated."60
While consenting to
hold talks with the militant groups is undoubtedly desirable, the issue raises
several questions with major practical implications for ongoing
counter-insurgency operations. Firstly, who represents the militants? The All
Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) is a fractured coalition of disparate
political parties with discredited leaders. Surely, the Indian Government
cannot be expected to hold talks with leaders of Pakistan-sponsored and
controlled militant outfits like the Hizbul Mujahideen and Harkat ul Ansar.
Secondly, is a cease-fire to be declared, as in Nagaland? If so, what is the
guarantee that it will be observed faithfully by the militants? Who will ensure
that Pakistani-sponsored militant outfits also adhere to the cease-fire
agreement, or are they to be left out of the talks process? Will it then make
sense to pursue negotiations at all? Thirdly, can the Government of India agree
to hold talks with the Kashmiri militants without pre-conditions till the
unanimous resolution of Parliament on the Kashmir issue is rescinded? Is it not
necessary to first build a national consensus on the issue, given the presence
of ultra right wing elements in some political parties who have been
vociferously demanding that Article 370 of the Constitution (which confers a
special status on the State of J&K), be scrapped? Finally, how is it to be
ensured that whatever agreement is reached with the militant groups will be
acceptable to the Government of Pakistan?
Obviously, it is
difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel as there are no easy
answers to this intractable problem. The most pragmatic way ahead appears to be
to further synergise counter-insurgency operation in J&K so as to bring
about functional normalcy all over the state as early as possible, while
simultaneously stepping up the industrial development of the State and the
socio-economic upliftment of the people. The creation of employment
opportunities for the youth, including schemes for self-employment, should be a
high priority point for action. The Sufi tradition of tolerance and liberalism,
for which Kashmir is well known, should be encouraged to bloom unhindered by
the diktats of radical Islam.
A sustained political
campaign must be immediately launched to win the 'hearts and minds' of the
Kashmiri people, assuage their feelings of hurt and neglect and restore their
bruised and battered dignity. The people of J&K need to be convinced that
their future lies with India. However, J&K will need to be given a large
measure of autonomy; indeed, this demand is entirely in keeping with the
federal structure of the Indian Constitution and has been recommended strongly
for all the states by the Sarkaria Commission. The hands of Mr. Farooq
Abdullah's administration should be strengthened so that the Kashmir Government
can further enhance the quality of its battle against militancy on all fronts.
And, the Government must launch a sustained media campaign, both within the
country and abroad, to highlight Pakistan's deep-rooted involvement in
fostering terrorism and insurgency in J&K and other parts of India.
International pressure must be brought to bear on Pakistan to desist from its
nefarious interference in India's internal affairs and to stop sponsoring Islamic
fundamentalist terrorism in the Southern Asian region and other parts of the
world.
Above all, public
opinion must be mobilised to express the nation's solidarity with the Kashmiri
people in their long drawn out and courageous struggle against Pakistan-sponsored
proxy war.